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《Earthquake》 1984-05
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FUZZY JUDGEMENT ON OPINIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Feng Deyi (Seismological Bureau of Tianjin)Lin Mingzhou (Seismological Bureau of Shanghai)Gu Jinping (Seismological Institute of Lanzhou, State Seismological Bureau)  
In recent years, much discussion on ability of earthquake prediction are mainly based on the judgement of ease example of earthquake prediction. Therefore, it is necessary to establish some quantitative criteria for judging if a concrete earthquake prediction is successful or not, as well as for assessing the correctness of different opinions on an earthquake prediction. In this paper, an attempt is made to set up such quantitative criteria by using the method of fuzzy mathematics. The degree of clearness (or degree of approach) of an earthquake prediction is defined from the point of view of "fuzzy set", and the method for evaluating opinions about the time, location and magnitude of a predicted earthquake are disceussed. Taking the Haicheng earthquake in China, the Oaxaca earthquake in Southern Mexico and the Blue Mountain Lake earthquake in the United States as examples, the corresponding computations for fuzzy judgement of opinions on earthquake prediction are made. The results obtained show that the Haicheng earthquake predictions are rather successful in foretelling time factor, whether they are of long-, medium-, and short-term periods. Finally, it is suggested that the opinions on predictions in terms of time, location and magnitude of an predicted earthquake must be given together with their standard errors, so as to make scientific assessment for prediction opinions.
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