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《Earthquake》 1990-01
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APPLICATION OF MULTILEVEL FUZZY SYNTHETIC DECI-SION TO EARTHQUAKE SYNTHETIC PREDICTION

Li Wenying (Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province)Wu Guoyou(Seismological Bureau of Tianjin)Zhang Qingrong(Seismological Bureau of Ilebci Province)  
According to seismicity data obtained in North China, this paper has distinguished some seismicity characteristics for a number of years before each of eight earthquakes with M5 occurred in North China in the last 20 years, and constructed their subordinate functions and multilevel fuzzy judgment model through fuzzy synthetic decision model. The final synthetic decision result is satisfactory and basically coincident with the real cases. An extrapolation test has also been carried out on the Heze earthquake M5.9 on November 7th, 1983 and the seismicities in the Wenan-Baxian area in 1983-1984, by using the judgment model, and the result is also correct, finally, the earthquake tendency in the area northwest of Beijing has been estimated by this model.
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