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《Earthquake》 1990-02
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SYNTHETIC PROBABILITY METHOD FOR PREDICTING EARTHQUAKES BY VARIOUS SEISMOLOGICAL PRECURSORS

Liao Zhihe Han Weibin(Seismologicai Bureau of Sichuan Province)  
Using six seismological prediction methods that summed up from many strong and moderate earthquakes in Sichuan province in the last 20 years, the authors have respectively calculated the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence when each of the six kinds of seismic anomalis appeared. Based on this, the synthetic probability and probability gain of earthquake occurrence in different prediction time-interval and area before several earthquakes that already occurred have been calculated; and synthetic probability curves of earthquakes M = 5, 6, 7 occurring in the northern half segment of Xianshuihe seismic zone in every half year from 1970 to 1986 have also been drawn. When the mutual independence of seismic precusors is unclear, such curves might be useful for relatively estimating earthquake occurrence rate. Under conditions of seismic precursors mentioned above, it seems that the synthetic probability curves in half a year exceeding 0.5 can be taken as an index for predicting earthquake occurrence for earthquakes with M = 6, 7.
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 HAN WEIBIN XI DUNLI (Seismological Bureau of Sichuan province);TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SEISMIC GAPS FORMED BY WEAK EARTHQUAKES BEFORE STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN SICHUAN PROVINCE[J];Acta Seismologica Sinica;1984-01
2 HAN WEIBIN XI DUNLI (Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province);THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SEISMICITY BELTS BEFORE STRONG EARTHQUAKES WITH MAGNITUDE M≥6 IN SICHUAN[J];Acta Seismologica Sinica;1985-01
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Han Weibin Xi Dunli (Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province);A DISCUSSION ON ASEISMIC GAP[J];Earthquake;1984-05
2 Han Weibin Xi Dunli (Seismologia Bureau of Sichuan Province);THREE WAYS FOR DELINEATING PRECURSORY MICROSEISMIC GAP FOR THE LUHUO EARTHQUAKE OF M=7.9 ——DIFFERENT THINKINGS FOR STUDYING PRECURSORY SEISMIC GAPS[J];Earthquake;1985-06
3 HAN Wei bin, REN Yue xia (Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China);Are there essential differences for precursory anomalies between strong earthquakes with M≥7 and moderate earthquakes?[J];Earthquake;2002-02
4 Sun Yaqiang;Li Liucang and Wan Huaming Heze Seismological Monitoring Central Station,Shandong Province,Heze 274026,China;The time-space change of seismicity function S before and after the Heze earthquake(M=5.9)[J];Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research;1993-01
5 GENG NAIGUANG (Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau);EARTHQUAKES CAUSED BY STRESS DECREASING[J];Acta Seismologica Sinica;1985-04
6 Rong Dailu Li Yarong(Earthquake Institute of Lanzhou, China Earthquake Administration, Lanzhou 730000, China);ESTIMATION OF CHARACTERISTIC PARAMETERS IN REGION-TIME-LENGTH ALGORITHM AND ITS APPLICATION[J];Acta Seismologica Sinica;2007-03
7 Han Weibin Xi Dunli (Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province);CHARACTERISTIC ACTIVITIES OF SMALL EARTHQUAKES BEFORE STRONG ONES (M≥5) IN SICHUAN[J];Journal of Seismological Research;1986-02
8 Zhou Chuanrong (Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province);STRIPE DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MICROSEISMIC ACTIVITIES[J];Journal of Seismological Research;1987-03
9 Mao Depei (Seismological Bureau of Dayao County,Dayao 675400,China);Seismic Features of Seismogenic Process for the M6.5 Wuding Earthquake[J];Journal of Seismological Research;2001-01
10 Han Weibin (Seismological Bureau of Sichuan Province,Chengdu,610041);OVERVIEW OF THE CONCEPT OF THREE KINDS OF SEISMIC QUIESCENCE AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J];RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD SEISMOLOGY;1998-05
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 CHEN PEI-SHAN LIN PANG-HUEI(Institute of Geophysics, Academia Sinica);AN APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY OF EXTREME VALUES TO MODERATE AND LONG INTERVAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J];Chinese Journal of Sinica;1973-01
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