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《Earthquake》 1993-01
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A SIMPLIFIED MODELING OF SEISMICITY

Geng Luming" Shi Yaolin Zhang Guomin  
Seismic active and quiescent episodes are found in continental seismic zones of China and intense activities of adjacent seismic zones show correlation in time and migration from one zone to another one in space. The mechanism of the activity characteristics is not well understood. In this paper, we use nonlinear dynamic models to simulate the seismic activity in fault zones under a unified tectonic stress field. Events produced in the modeling show remarkable similarity to realistic seismicity, such as the power law frequency-magnitude relation and the active-quiescence episodes If precursors are correlated to high element stress close o its strength, the complicated development of precursors before large events is found. Precursors for large events are not limited to elements surrounding the forthcoming large event, in contrary, precursors occur widely in the whole system. According to the intensity of precursors, the maximum magnitude of event which might occur in the system can be estimated, but no definite relation is found between the magnitude of events and the intensky of precursors.
【Fund】: 地震科学联合基金
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