STUDY ON APPLICATION OF PRECURSORY SEISMIC QUIESCENCE TO SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
Song Jungao Wang Wei Pan Jianyun Li Dongsheng( Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province )
In this paper the characteristics of the mediam and short-term seismic quiescen-ces before 14 moderate and strong earthquakes in the eastern China are further studied . For the mediam-term quiescence, the nomalized N-T and L-T curves are used, and also the statistical parameters βn values are adopted. Based on this the time interval of mediam-term quiescence is quantitatively determined . For the short-term quiescence, the authors use the nomalized N-T and L-T curves and the concen-trative distribution of small earthquakes before the mainshock to determine the short-term quiescence and the possible location of the forthcoming earthquakes. The magnitude of the forthcoming mainshock may be estimated by the magnitude of " signal earthquake" occurred in the discussed region. This paper summarized several seismic activity patterns befor moderate and strong earthquakes, the general feature is the change in seismicity from the incremental rate to the lowering rate before moderate and strong earthquakes, and their N-T and L-T curves exhibit irregular variation of sine waves.
【CateGory Index】： P315