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《Earthquake》 1996-01
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APPLICATION OF NATURAL ANALOGISM TO DISTINGUISH TYPES OF EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCES AND TO DETERMINE POST-SEISMIC TENDENCY IN EARLY STAGE

Jiao Yuanbi Liu Jie (Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB)  
Authors present a new method to distinguish the types of earthquake sequences because there is a need for determination of post-seismic tendency. By using this method, the earthquake sequences are distingushed according to number of strong aftershocks. There are four types: no strong aftershock; less strong aftershock; more strong aftershocks and the most strong aftershocks. In order to determine the types and post-seismic tendency of earthquake sequences in early stage, authors operated natural analogism using three days after main shock. The distribution of strain energy release and frequency within the initial three days after a newly occurred earthquake sequence is compared with that of many known earthquake sequences one by one, and the most similar one or two known earthquake sequences are determined with Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The type and strong shock number of the new earthquake sequence is predicted by that known earthquake sequence. The method is internally tested by three earthquakes with M≥ 7 in Wuqia, Lancang-Gengma, Gonghe and six earthquakes with 6≤ M 1 in Batang, Xiaojin, Datong, Jingtai, Keping, Pu'er during this seismically active episode. The result of test is better.
【Fund】: 国家地震局“八五”攻关项目(85-04-03-01)
【CateGory Index】: P315.7
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