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《EARTHQUAKE》 1997-04
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EARTHQUAKE COMPLEXITY PRECURSOR AND A NOMALY OF MULTI-FRACTAL SPECTRUM OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES

Zhu Lingren; Zhou Shiyong; Yang Maling; Wang Haitao; Zhu Yan (Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China)  
Study of earthquake cases and experimental researches show that the precursory variations at different observation points in near source regions are uncertain and not repeat able before the occurrence of great fracture during the nonlinear process of earthquake preparation. On the whole, however, the acoustic emisslon (small earthquake) and deformation field are varied with increase of strain from the ordered to disordered, the simple to complex and the "white face"to "painted face", and the changes are certain and repeatable. It should be noted that the repetition here does not indicate the repetition of fine texture but the repetition of complexity increase for macroscopic picture. This kind of variation with repeatability and complexity of macroscopic picture is called as the precursor of seismic complexity. It is obviously different from the variation with certain physical quantity and certain mode. It takes the non-linear process of earthquake preparation as physical background. It is a new subject to explore and look for the methods and indexes to describe and depict the evolutional characteristics of seismic precursor complex picture. The fractal structure research of space-time distribution of earthquakes provides some new knowledge to this subject. The space-time distribution of earthquakes is usually multi-fractal Set. It can be regarded as simple fractal set when it is far from the earthquake epicenters. Then Dq value hardly changed with q and f(α)-α is concentrated in a very small area.Analyzing many earthquake cases, we can see that before a strong earthquake occurrence the Dq-q curve of multi-fractal spectrum becomes steep, Dq in posltive value region decreases and in negative's increases. The span of f(α)-α curve displays getting wider and the anomaly usually advances about a few months to . 5 years. Study of the double-rules Contor's model and numerical models of seismic spatial distribution of point-set (earthquake and precursor) have become more inhomogeneous, for example, the complexity is increased. The seismic multi-fractal spectrum is a kind of tools and methods to describe the complexity precursor of earthquakes.
【Fund】: 地震科学联合基金!91228
【CateGory Index】: P315
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