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APPLICATION OF VERTICAL DEFORMATION INTENSITY ANALYSIS TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Gu Guohua; Wang Ruobai; Sun Dongping; Yang Chunhua(First Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center, SSB, Tianjin 300180, China)  
?Based on the concept of the curved surface fitness in mathematics, the mean vertical deformation is defined to quantitatively study the intensity of vertical crustal deformation on the earth's surface. It is meaningful both in system analysis and statistics. Based on the adjustment result of vertical displacement velocity in China's mainland, general characteristics of distribution of vertical deformation intensity and their correlation to earthquake rlsks are studies; by using the vertical deformation data from 1965 to 1988 in North China, the study on the dynamic process of vertical deformation before and after the great Tangshan earthquake shows non-linear variation in vertical deformation intensity during the process of preparation, occurrence and post seismic adjustment of the great earthquake and its normal variation. The result shows that the method used in this paper can objectively and quantitatively determine the vertical deformation intensity and may be useful in the study on earthquake prediction.
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