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《EARTHQUAKE》 1998-01
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STUDY ON GENETIC MECHANISM OF SEISMIC PRECURSORY COMPLEXITY(一)──The manifestation of the seismic precursory complexity

Jiao Mingruo; Zhang Guomin(Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 1OOO36, China)  
This paper has introduced the precursory regularity by means of analyzing the exam-ples of success and failures in earthquake prediction. For example, if an earthquake withmagnitude of more than 6.0 occurs in an area where the network has a certain capability tomonitor the earthquake, we can observe more or less precursory phenomena. The biggerthe earthquake is, the more the precursory anomalies occur prior to the earthquake, thewider the precursory anomalies are distributed, the longer the anomalies last, and thelarger the anomalous amplitude becomes. Meanwhile, the expression form of the precur-sory complexity is emphatically and systematically generalized and arranged. It mainly in-cludes as follows: Uncertainty of relation between anomalies and earthquakes l mainly ex-pressed as "There is the anomaly, but no earthquake follows” and ”Earthquakes occurredwithout any anomaly prior to themn”;Different precursory features in time and space areshown in different regions ; The precursor even in the same region are not repetitional; Itis difficult to distinguish the precursor from aftereffect; Complexity of the precursory ge-netics j Variety of the short-term and imminent precursory anomalies; Non-synchronism ofprecursory changes in the initial and turning point; Inhomogeneity and multivariability ofprecursors in spatial distributionl Uncertainty of the relation between the amplitude ofprecursory anomaly, earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance; Different characteris-tics of anomalies in active period and quiet period. Combined with earthquake cases theabove-mentioned phenomena are briefly explained in this paper.
【CateGory Index】: P315
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