DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL MEAN LUNAR TIME OF SIGNIFICANT SHOCKS AND ITS APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM AND IMMINENT PREDICTION TO JIASHI EARTHQUAKES IN APRIL 1997
Chen Ronghua (Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China)
The distribution of local mean lunar time τ of significant shocks happened in source region and its vicinity before a large earthquake is studied in this paper. The significant shocks, including 13 earthquakes with M S 7 and 49 earthquakes with M S 6 are studied. The research results show that regarding to 47 earthquakes the crossing angle Δτ between local mean lunar times of two significant shocks are less than or equal to 45°, and the main earthquake will happen in two or three months after the late significant shock in 68% of 47 earthquakes. The results are explained by fissure catena model, i.e.IPE model of earthquake preparation in this paper. The author has tried to use the results to predict the earthquakes, and successfully predicted M S 6.3, 6.4 earthquakes in April 6, M S 6.6 earthquake in April 11 and M S 6.3 in April 16 in 1997 in Jiashi, Xinjiang Autonomous Region.