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《Earthquake》 1999-01
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RESEARCH ON MEDIUM-TERM SEISMIC INDEXES FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND THEIR SPATIAL IMAGE EVOLUTION

Jiang Chun;Lu Yuanzhong;Wang Jianguo;Tian Shan;Seismological Bureau of Tianjin Municipality;Institute of Crustal Dynamics,CSB;  
In this paper,based on study and application of some fuzzy mathematical methods and nonlinear science methods,and through practical test for earthquake prediction,some good medium-term methods are deeply studied,and some good quantitative indexes have been picked up,such as seismic quietness anomaly μ_q,self-similarity subordinate function μ_s,bootstrap statistical deviation σ_(MB) and others.Furthermore,the evolutionary features of seismicity pattern in late period of earthquake preparation are explored.The results show that,as quantitative indexes for mid-term prediction,μ_q,μ_s and σ_(MB) can have obvious mid-term and short term changes before large earthquakes;the time series of spatial pattern can represent the general anomalous areas before earthquakes and the evolutionary features of the seismicity pattern.
【Fund】: 中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目(95-04-04-03-03)
【CateGory Index】: P315.75
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