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The discriminant method of medium-and short-term anomaly and evaluation of prediction effect of hydrochemical parameters

LIU Yao wei, SHI Jin, CAO Ling ling, PAN Shu xin (Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, CSB, Lanzhou 730000, China)  
The anomaly discriminant method of hydrochemical parameters before "the Nine Five" project was summed up, and the method, which fits the medium and short term anomaly discrimination was optimally selected. Authors proposed the feature marks: the acceleration index of anomaly, the dynamic change index and trend background index of medium and short term anomaly. At the same time, authors gave the discriminant method and distinguishing index to the medium and short term anomaly related to their characters. Using the observational data from 275 stations, the authors computed R value for all kinds of ways. The results show that because the strong earthquake generation lies in different structural surrounding, their anomaly characteristics are different, so R value is different. The result regarding the effect of the discriminant method on anomaly show that the anomaly acceleration index is the important mark that earthquake generation entered the medium and short term. The main methods to describe anomaly acceleration index include the amplitude acceleration method and the high frequency anomalous frequency acceleration method. The acceleration anomalies are mainly concentrated in adjusting unit in earthquake generating area or active segment of the fault. Descriptive dynamic change index mainly uses the relative ratio. This method has strong ability to discriminate the anomalies for observation station with annual stable change. The important index of M S  ≥7.0 earthquake is that at least 20 percent anomaly stations have trend anomaly lasting more than six months in earthquake generating area.
【Fund】: 中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目!(95-0 4 -0 1 -0 1 -0 7)
【CateGory Index】: P315.75
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