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《EARTHQUAKE》 2000-S1
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A new method of short-term and imminent earthquake prediction and its four application examples

CHEN Rong hua (Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China)  
When the seismogenic process enters the short term and imminent stage, the accumulation of strain energy of earthquake source region and its vicinity is at a high level and the source region is in the unstable critical state. Strain energy releases may be accelerated and be affected easily by trigger factor. Based on these thoughts the author proposed a new method of short term and imminent earthquake prediction——CH method. It means that if the time interval of the near significant shocks becomes shorter and shorter, the magnitude of these shocks becomes higher or basically not low. The cross angles of local mean lunar time of the near significant shocks are smaller, the main earthquake may take place in several to several tens days after the last significant shock. CH method has been applied in practical short term and imminent earthquake prediction. We have successfully predicted the earthquakes with M S  6.3 6.6 in April 6 16 in 1997 in Jiashi, Xinjiang; the earthquake with M S  6.0 in March 19, 1998 in Atushi, Xinjiang; the earthquake with M S  5.4 in Xiuyan, Liaoning and the earthquake with M S  5.1 in March 27, 2000 in Jiashi, Xinjiang and so on. The method shows a good result.
【Fund】: 中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目!(95-0 4 -0 5);; 国家科委863高科技计划资助项目
【CateGory Index】: P315.75
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【References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 Li Tao (Xining Seismic Station,Qinghai Province 810001,China);The application of the relation between earthquake and tide force[J];Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research;2005-S1
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 4 Hits
1 Chen Ronghua (Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China);DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL MEAN LUNAR TIME OF SIGNIFICANT SHOCKS AND ITS APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM AND IMMINENT PREDICTION TO JIASHI EARTHQUAKES IN APRIL 1997[J];Earthquake;1998-02
2 Chen Ronghua (Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China);PREDICTION TO THE EARTHQUAKE WITH Ms 6.0 IN ATUSHI, XINJIANG IN MARCH 19, 1998[J];EARTHQUAKE;1998-04
3 Chen Ronghua;Luo Zhuoli(Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036 , China);TWO INDEXES FOR JUDGING SUBSEQUENT STRONG EARTHQUAKES[J];EARTHQUAKE;1999-01
4 CHEN RONG-HUA; DING XIANG(Center for Analysis and Prediction. SSB, Beijing 100036, China);DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL MEAN LUNAR TIMES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOCKS IN SOURCE REGION AND ITS VICINITY BEFORE LARGE EARHQUAKE AND ITS EXPLANATION[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;1996-S1
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Chen Ronghua (Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China);DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL MEAN LUNAR TIME OF SIGNIFICANT SHOCKS AND ITS APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM AND IMMINENT PREDICTION TO JIASHI EARTHQUAKES IN APRIL 1997[J];Earthquake;1998-02
2 Chen Ronghua;Luo Zhuoli(Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036 , China);TWO INDEXES FOR JUDGING SUBSEQUENT STRONG EARTHQUAKES[J];EARTHQUAKE;1999-01
3 GU Jin ping, LU Pei ling, LI Gang (Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China);Stress modulation and prediction research[J];EARTHQUAKE;2000-03
4 CHEN Ronghua(Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China);Relation between tidal force triggering of significant shocks and the large earthquake and its application in the prediction of Yiajang earthquake[J];Earthquake;2003-01
5 CHEN Rong-hua, PENG Ke-yin, XUE Yan, DING Xiang (Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China);Relation between tidal force and significant shocks and its application in the short-term and impending earthquake prediction[J];Earthquake;2004-01
6 LI Zhi-hai,WANG Hai-tao,ZHU Cheng-ying(Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,China);Characteristic study on the significant earthquake before strong earthquake based on CH method in Xinjiang[J];Earthquake;2005-04
7 CHEN Rong-hua~1,XUE Yan~1,ZHENG Da-lin~1,DING Xiang~2(1.China Earthquake Networks Center,CEA,Beijing 100036;2.Institute of Earthquake Science,CEA,Beijing 100036,China);Discussion on mechanism concerning relation between tidal force triggering of significant shocks and large earthquakes[J];Earthquake;2006-01
8 Chen Yuwei,Zhang Jun,Qing Mei and Yan Suping ( Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China );Application of difference Se value of positive and negative earthquakes in the mid-term earthquake prediction in East China[J];Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research;2003-01
9 Li Tao (Xining Seismic Station,Qinghai Province 810001,China);The application of the relation between earthquake and tide force[J];Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research;2005-S1
10 Liu Zemin1),2),Zhen Xianjin2),Shen Xiaoqi2),Li Junhui2) and Li Fa2)1) Department of Earth and Space Sciences,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China2) Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province,Hefei 230031,China;The application of temporal scanning of concentrative degree of seismic local meanlunar times in earthquake prediction[J];Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research;2009-02
【Co-references】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 3 Hits
1 CHEN Ronghua(Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China);Relation between tidal force triggering of significant shocks and the large earthquake and its application in the prediction of Yiajang earthquake[J];Earthquake;2003-01
2 CHEN Rong-hua, PENG Ke-yin, XUE Yan, DING Xiang (Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China);Relation between tidal force and significant shocks and its application in the short-term and impending earthquake prediction[J];Earthquake;2004-01
3 CHEN Rong hua (Center for Analysis and Prediction,CSB,Beijing 100036,China);SHORT-IMPENDING PREDICTIONS TO TWO M_S≥5.0 EARTHQUAKES IN XIUYAN OF LIAONING PROVINCE AND SOME THOUGHTS TO THE PREDICTIONS[J];Northwestern Seismological Journal;2000-04
【Secondary References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 Yang Chengyuan and Li Zhe(Jinzhou Seismic Station,Liaoning Province 121013,China);Analysis on change with shakes of borehole strain observation in Jinzhou Seismic Station[J];Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research;2008-03
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 4 Hits
1 Ding Jianhai Huang Xuexiang Dai Shuling(Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB);THE EFFECT OF LUNAR PHASE ON SEISMICITY[J];Earthquake;1994-04
2 Chen Ronghua (Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China);DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL MEAN LUNAR TIME OF SIGNIFICANT SHOCKS AND ITS APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM AND IMMINENT PREDICTION TO JIASHI EARTHQUAKES IN APRIL 1997[J];Earthquake;1998-02
3 CHEN RONG-HUA; DING XIANG(Center for Analysis and Prediction. SSB, Beijing 100036, China);DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL MEAN LUNAR TIMES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOCKS IN SOURCE REGION AND ITS VICINITY BEFORE LARGE EARHQUAKE AND ITS EXPLANATION[J];Chinese Journal of Geophysics;1996-S1
4 Xi Qinwen(Centre for Analysis and Prediction, SSB);EARTH TIDES AND GENERATING TIDE CONSTANTS[J];Earthquake Research In China;1986-02
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