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《EARTHQUAKE》 2000-S1
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Regional features of medium-and short-term earthquake precursors in East China

XIE Hua zhang, TIAN Jian ming, HUANG Yun, ZHENG Jiang rong, SUN Chun xian (Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210014, China)  
Based on analysis of seismicity pattern evolution and precursor field evolution prior to major earthquakes in East China in recent 30 years, regional characteristics of the medium and short term earthquake precursors in the region have been emphatically studied in this paper. The results show that the medium and short term stage in earthquake preparing process exists objectively and can be recognized. The main indices for the transitional period from the medium term stage to the medium and short term stage of the preparation process are as follows: ①Abrupt increase of the number of regional swarms (more than 3 swarms in a year with M L ≥3.0); ②Occurrence of the significant imminent earthquakes; ③Appearance of dynamic seismic activity belt (or dynamic seismic gap); ④Appearance of group precursory anomalies; ⑤Appearance of dynamic changes of seismicity parameters. Based on the results mentioned above we have built a medium and short term prediction index system and method with good prediction effect in East China. Finally, the general applicability of the medium and short term earthquake precursors and the issue regarding prediction of future strong earthquakes site have been discussed.
【Fund】: 中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目!(95-0 4 -0 4 -0 3-0 4 )部分成果
【CateGory Index】: P315.72
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