Stress triggers and stress shadows: How to apply these concepts to earthquake prediction
SHI Yao lin (Graduate School, CAS, Beijing 100039, China)
It is a frontier of contemporary research to apply the concepts of stress triggers and stress shadows to earthquake prediction, there are, however, a number of questions deserved in depth study. Among them are determination of initial stress field, choice of reasonable rheological models and their computation, variations of pore pressure and its effects, variation of fault strength with time. Particularly, in the present calculation of variations of stress field produced by fault dislocation, only the effects of large earthquakes have been included, but latest observations indicate that effects of large amount of small earthquakes, slow and quiet earthquakes, and aseismic slip are not negligible. Quantitative study of their effects is a promising direction in the research on stress triggers and stress shadows.