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《Earthquake》 2002-03
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Discussion on the Characteristics of Earthquake Clustering,Its Causes and Critical State

LUO Zhuo li 1, MENG Guo jie 2 (1. Science and Technology Committee, CSB, Beijing 100036, China; 2. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China)  
The newest method to study earthquake clustering at critical point, namely the time frame coefficient method is introduced in this paper, and the characteristics of earthquake clustering of different types and their causes are discussed. On the basis of study on the large earthquake sequence with M≥8.0 in China's mainland and the sequence with M≥6.0 in North China, the features of self similarity and time diversity phenomenon in critical state are consequently proposed. In addition, internal time of earthquake generation system is defined and the nonlinear characteristics of earthquake clustering are studied. The following results are obtained: ①An event occurrence means a large quantity of energy release and state conversion one time. Only when the behavior of earthquake generation system is of enough randomness, the state conversion and the events may occur.②Fluctuation is the detector of earthquake generation system. When the system is in the critical state, the magnitude of fluctuation gets greater and time frame coefficient equals 1. The clustering in the critical state is determined by intrinsic random feature and thus seismic events occur stochastically. There won't be only one critical point with coefficient δ=1.③Seismic events (M≥M 0) occurred sequentially reflect the process and its feature of earthquake generation system; Clustering reflects the ordering and disordering feature of the system. ④ Event clustering and clustered events are of the feature of self similarity and fractal form and also of the feature of self organization and mapping.⑤Time frame coefficient, internal time (or age) of the earthquake system, the linear equation of interval and past time, mapping and the method of repeating calculation can be used to predict the trend of earthquakes and critical points in the future for the selected earthquake sequence with M≥M 0.
【Fund】: “九五”中国地震局科研攻关项目 (95 -0 4-0 5 )
【CateGory Index】: P315.7
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