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《Earthquake》 2002-03
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Strengthening basic theoretical study and basic monitoring --Consideration regarding improvement of earthquake prediction level

LI Yan xing (The First Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center, CSB, Tianjin 300180, China)  
In the paper, the present level of earthquake prediction in China is analyzed. With an averaged success rate (R value) of 0.330 in earthquake prediction in China from 1996 to 2000, one can see that the general prediction level in China is rather low now, the success rare is unstable, and the proportions of false predictions and failure predictions are quite high. The major factors to effect improving the level of earthquake prediction in China are as follows: the earthquake prediction in China is still the empirical type. Limited and restricted by the experiences of the people, the prediction level is difficult to improve qualitatively. Second, a relatively perfect theoretical foundation has not been established now, and the prediction method and prediction system based on the theoretical models has not been formed yet. Third, the basic observational system is weak, and a variety of "physical field" information related to space time variation can't be provided. The analysis in the paper indicates that the theoretical study on seismicity, earthquake development and occurrence is mainly involved in 3 scientific fields of geodynamics, astrodynamics and geochemistry. And the related scientific disciplines are mainly geophysics, geodesy, geology, geochemistry and astrophysics. We should carry out a key study on the basic theories associated with seismicity, earthquake development and occurrence, and earthquake triggering within these 5 scientific disciplines. Therefore, for the need of earthquake prediction, basic monitoring should be further strengthened in order to obtain a variety of information related to space time variation from the velocity field of crustal horizontal and vertical movements, from the gravity field, geomagnetic field, stress field and crustal heat flow field in the major seismic monitoring areas in China's Mainland. Moreover, to improve the level of earthquake prediction in China, 3 high quality seismic contingents should be established, e.g. an expert contingent in earthquake prediction, an expert contingent in basic theoretical research and a contingent in seismic monitoring.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目资助 (G1 9980 40 70 3 )
【CateGory Index】: P315.7
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