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《Earthquake》 2008-02
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The scientific practice of the short-term prediction of Wen′an M5.1 earthquake on July 4,2006

SHAO Yong-xin,WANG Jun-guo(Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality,Tianjin 300201,China)  
This paper looked back the prediction process before Wen′an MS5.1 earthquake on July 4,2006 by Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality.Before Wen′an earthquake,there were seismic activity anomalies and 4 anomalies of underground fluid in Tianjin and its adjacent area.The three main elements,including the occurrence time,location and intensity of earthquake,were predicted.The location was predicted based on anomaly of seismic activity and considered in Tianjin and its adjacent area.According to anomaly of underground fluid,it was considered that the occurrence time would be middle July and based on combination of seismicity and underground fluid anomalies,the magnitude was predicted as around ML=4.5.Such results have been recorded on the weekly and monthly discussion meeting of Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality before the earthquake.The results indicate that the occurrence time and location is roughly right,the magnitude is slightly deviated.
【Fund】: 天津市地震局基金项目(074005)
【CateGory Index】: P315.72
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