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《Crustal Deformation and Earthquake》 2002-01
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QUASI-PERIODICALLY CLUSTERING EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE IN SOME SEISMOTECTONIC BELTS OF CHINA CONTINENT

Zhang Qiuwen\+\{1)\}\ Zhang Peizhen\+\{2)\}\ Wang Cheng\+\{1)\} \ Wang Yipeng\+\{2)\} and Michael A.Ellis\+\{3)\}\;1)Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074 2)Institute of Geology,CSB,Beijing 100029 3)University of Memphis,Memphis,TN3  
By analyzing the seismicity of several seismotectonic belts around the southeastern and northeastern margins of Tibet Plateau,this paper studies the recurrence behavior of intraplate continent earthquakes.It is concluded that the earthquakes of intraplate continent do not recur just quasi periodically or just in a cluster,but recur in a quasi periodical cluster.That is to say that earthquake clusters recur quasi periodically,and earthquakes among an earthquake cluster recur in a cluster.Hence there exist two types of recurrence interval recurrence interval of earthquae clusters and recurrence interval of earthquakes among an earthquake cluster,they satisfy lognormal distribution and exponential distribution respectively.When analyzing and assessing the seismic potential of active faults in an area,we can not simply use the distribution function of earthquakes recurrence intervals given by N.B.Model.We should select the distribution function of earthquake cluster recurrence interval or distribution function of recurrence interval of earthquakes among an earthquake cluster respectively according to the area's current seismicity:still in an earthquake cluster or at the beginning of a new earthquake cluster?This way the accuracy of seismic hazard assessment will significantly be improved.Finally,the possible physical mechanisms for the quasi periodically clustering recurrence of intraplate earthquakes are briefly discussed.
【Fund】: 中国地震局“九五”重点项目 (95 0 410 0 7);; 地震科学联合基金与教育部高等学校博士点学科专项基金 (10 0 0 61)联合资助
【CateGory Index】: P315.2
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