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《CRUSTAL DEFORMATION AND EARTHQUAKE》 1994-01
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FORECAST METHOD FOR RISK AREA AND RISK TIME OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE BY SUPERIMPOSING THE RESIDUAL AND PRESENT STRESS FIELD

An Ou;Gao Guobao;Li Qunfang and Li Guirong(Institute of Earth Crust Dynamics,State Seismoligical Bureau, Beijing 100085)  
The paleotectonic residual stress field and its strain energy density field in Honghe fracture zone was measured by x-ray diffraction technique.The horizontal maximum shear stress field of the measuring area with two boundary conditions is calculated by limited unit analysis method and the effects of negnitude and direction of paleotectonic residula principal compressive stress on rock break ,crack propagation,and earthquake magnitude are discussed. On the basis of above results it is forecasted that Songping-Nanjian,Yuxi-Kaiyuan and Puer are risk areas of strong earthquake in measuring area and 1989-1996,1999-2004, 2007-2013,2016-2018 are risk perilds of strong earthquake in the measuring area with the temporal extension of astrobservational curve showing the variations of yearly average value of relative change rate of angular velocity of earth's rotation.
【Fund】: 地震学联合科学基金
【CateGory Index】: P315.7
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1 ZHAO Juan1,2, HAN Yan-ben2(1. Department of Astronomy,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875, China;2. National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100012, China);Progress of researches on astronomical factor and earthquake[A];[C];2007
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4 An Ou(Institute of Geocrustal Dynamics,CEA,Beijing 100085,China);Mid-long Term Forecast and Short Term Targeting Prediction Method for the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake in China[J];Earthquake;2010-04
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