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《CRUSTAL DEFORMATION AND EARTHQUAKE》 1995-01
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MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF CURRENT FAULT ACTIVITY AND DISCUSSION ON SEISMIC RISK IN THE CAPITAL REGION

Li Qunfang;Zhang Yunzhu and Gao Zhongning (Institute of Crustal Stress, State Seismological Bureau,Beijing 100085)  
In this paper,according to the displacement data of current active faults about 20 years in the capital region,the active specialities of faults is simulated by use of method of Z-D finite element,and the seismic risk in the resign is discussed with related data. The results show that from 1977 to 1986 the superior direction of principal compressive stress axis coincided with the North China of being N65°-80°E. From 1986 to 1990 the principal compressive stress axis had rotated toward north,to N45°-60°E. Since 1990 the principal compressive stress axis have rotated toward east and the angle is larger than that in the first time interval,extending to N80°-95°E.In the near future in the Zhangjiakou-Yanqing area moderate-strong earthquake may occur.In Fengzhen-Yanggao-Datong area and LiangCheng-Guyingpan area, it should be noticed too that the stresses are higher than that in other area.
【Fund】: 国家地震局“八五”攻关项目
【CateGory Index】: P542
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