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《Geography and Geo-Information Science》 2005-05
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Relationship between the Droughts,Floods and Climatic Changes in Guangdong during the History Period

XUE Ji-bin,ZHONG Wei(College of Geographical Sciences,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510631,China)  
Based on the historical records in Guangdong during the history period,the series of the drought and flood disasters,the moist index and the cold index are set up in this paper and these series are analyzed by the correlative analysis,the wavelet analysis and the power spectrum analysis.From the analyses,some conclusions are drew as follows:1)The dry-wet situations in Guangdong are closely correlate to the drought and flood disasters and the cold index has remarkable influences on the drought and flood disaster in Guangdong.2)The El Nino events have little influence on the drought and flood disasters in Guangdong from the viewpoint of the historical course.3)The dry-wet index and the cold index are not same in different historical periods of the drought and flood disasters and some series have the same or similar periods during the historical period.Some other studies show that solar activity may be the prime reason that result in the above situation.At the same time,ENSO event,monsoon(especially the East Asia monsoon) activity and the human activity may also have some influences to the periods of the climatic changes in Guangdong.4)Guangdong will be in the waterlogging period in the 21st century from the viewpoint of the 120 a period.But as a whole the whole province will be in the dry period before 2040(±5)A.D.though some small waterlogging period will also exist,and after that great waterlogged disasters maybe take place in Guangdong.
【Fund】: 广东省自然科学基金资助项目(031522);; 教育部霍英东基金资助项目(91021)
【CateGory Index】: P467;P426.616;
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