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《Geography and Geo-Information Science》 2006-05
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Dynamic Constrained CA Model for Simulating Complex Urban Systems

YANG Qing-sheng,LI Xia(School of Geographical Science and Planning,Zhongshan University,Guangzhou 510275,China)  
This paper develops urban cellular automata model by taking dynamic spatial and temporal constraints into account.Recently,cellular automata(CA) have been increasingly used to simulate urban growth and land use dynamics.Traditional CA models simulate urban growth with explicit transition rules,which are invariant within a region.The static transition rule CA models have limitations in simulating dynamic urban growth in a large complex region.It is considered that the development probability of cells with the same attributes may vary in the spatio-temporal dimensions because of the complexity of urban systems.The constraints are based on the amounts of land consumptions for different subregions and time periods.These amounts of land consumptions were obtained by using remote sensing data.This proposed model was used to simulate the urban growth of the Shenzhen and Dongguan city from 1988 to 2004.The prediction of urban land use in 2010 was also carried out by using this model based on the development trajectory.Overall accuracies and Moran I values were calculated by comparing the simulated patterns with the actual ones from remote sensing data.The analysis indicates that this model can produce better simulation results than the non-constrained CA model.
【Fund】: 国家杰出青年基金资助项目(40525002);; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40471105);; “985工程”GIS与遥感的地学应用科技创新平台项目(105203200400006)
【CateGory Index】: TP391.9
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