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《Geography and Geo-Information Science》 2006-06
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Spatio-Temporal Simulation and Experiment of Policies of Desertification Land in the West of Hainan Island

LUO Ping~(1,3),LI Sen~2,LI Man-chun~1,ZHENG Ying-hua~2(1.Department of Urban and Resource Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093;2.Department of Resources & Environments,Foshan College of Science and Technology,Foshan 528000;3.Bureau of Land Resources and Housing Management of Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518031,China)  
Changes of climate,environment and human activities are the main factors of land desertification evolvement in Hainan Island,among which,the state policy oriented human activities is the key point of land system evolvement controlling.Cellular Automata Model can supply a good way to describe the self-organization mechanism of land desertification,whose entropy is in a decline tendency.Based on the analysis of evolvement process of land desertification and the dynamic mechanism of western Hainan Island,this paper builds up Cellular Automata Model of land desertification,makes a relevant prediction of the main state of land desertification in western Hainan Island in 2010 and carries through two typical virtual policy experiments.The main conclusions of the paper are as follows:1) building up virtual laboratory of prevention policy of land desertification which is based on the Cellular Automata Model helps to achieve simulation,prediction and visualization of the spatial-temporal process of land desertification dominated by multi-policy;2) in the following 5-10 years,if the present land using mode and policy state remain the same,land desertification of western Hainan Island will present distinct expanding trend and more effective policies and measures to control land desertification should be executed.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40271012、30471421);; 2005年江苏省博士后基金B类资助项目
【CateGory Index】: P931.3
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