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《Geography and Geo-Information Science》 2007-02
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Analysis on the Socioeconomic Driving Forces Differences of Cultivated Land Area Change in Suzhou City

WU Ye1,2,YANG Gui-shan1,WAN Rong-rong1,CHEN Jiang-long1(1.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039,China)  
The contradiction between economic development and cultivated land protection is increasingly prominent in developed areas of China,and thus the study on the socioeconomic driving factors of cultivated land area reduction is of great importance.Based on statistical data from 1972 to 2005 in Suzhou City,the study period was divided into primary production stage and industrialization stage.The driving forces of cultivated land area change in the two stages were analyzed by PCA and multiple linear regression.The result showed that the increase of per capita GDP and population made the most contribution to cultivated land decrease in the primary production stage and industrialization stage.The upgrading of industrial structure accelerated the cultivated land decrease in the primary production stage,but restrained the cultivated land decrease in the industrialization stage.The promotion of urbanization rate also restrained the cultivated land decrease in the industrialization stage.The paper also analyzed the driving forces of cultivated land area change in the industrialization stage in different counties of Suzhou.The result showed that the increasing of population made the most contribution to cultivated land decrease in urban area;the increasing of per capita GDP made the most contribution to cultivated land decrease in Changshu,Zhangjiagang,Kunshan and Wujiang;the most important driving forces of cultivated land decrease in Taicang are both the per capita GDP and population.However,the urbanization rate and industrial structure made rather different effect on cultivated land area change in different counties.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40371111、70503026);; 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所知识创新工程所长专项基金(CXNI-GLAS2006-06)
【CateGory Index】: F323.211
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