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《Geography and Geo-Information Science》 2008-02
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Multi-time Scale Analysis on the Economic Growth in China Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

QIN Xian-hong1,2,DUAN Xue-jun2,LI Hui1,2(1.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039;2.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,CAS,Nanjing 210008,China)  
Empirical Mode Decomposition is a useful method for analyzing the nonlinear and non-stationary time series.Different from the traditional method in doing integral transformation to signal,it can decompose signal into IMFs(Intrinsic Mode Function),which contain and extrude the local character of signal.So the characteristic information of the original signal can be well held by analyzing the IMFs.This paper decomposes Chinese economic growth rate from 1953 by Empirical Mode Decomposition and analyzes it.The results indicate:1) There are multi-time fluctuations in Chinese economic growth,corresponding four economic cycles of western economics.2) Chinese economy will keep its high growth until about 2025.3) China has entered a period that the whole country is in high economic growth,and the central and western region would play a more important role in the country's economic growth.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40671077);; 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2004164)
【CateGory Index】: F124;F224
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