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《Geography and Geo-Information Science》 2008-06
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Research on Response of Grain Output to Climate Change Based on Wavelet Analysis:A Case Study of Tibet

TANG Xiao-lu1,JIN Xiao-bin1,SHENG Li2,ZHOU Yin-kang1,SUN Tao3,4(1.School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093;2.Institute of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Information Application,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310029;3.School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093;4.School of Sciences,Tibet University,Lhasa 850000,China)  
In this paper,Tibet Autonomous Region was selected as study area,where is one of the ecologically sensitive areas and the promoter region of climate change.And according to the special terrain feature of this area,the climate factors play an important role to the grain output while the human activity relatively affects little.So,the data of four typical meteorological stations in Tibet were gotten,including grain output data and climate(temperature,sunlight,precipitation) data from 1960 to 2005.Giving four stations the corresponding weight by grain farming area,the corresponding data of temperature,sunlight,precipitation for the study area were gotten.The above data were analyzed at multi-time scales with Morlet-wavelet technique.And then the grain output in response to climate change was analyzed through wavelet coefficients.At last,according to the analysis,the overall trend of grain output of the Tibet Autonomous Region in the next few years was forecasted.The results show that both grain output and the climate factors have a 25 years characteristic time scale and corresponding changes.The grain output has closely correlation with climate change according to the figures of wavelet coefficients.Briefly,warmer temperature,longer sunlight and more precipitation in normal bound avail grain produces.Further more,the grain output in Tibet just converts toward the poor years from plentiful years.It needs more attention to ensure the ample grain supply.
【CateGory Index】: S162
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