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《Geography and Geo-Information Science》 2011-03
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Climate Change Effect on Runoff Modulus in Guizhou Province

XIONG Ya-lan1,ZHANG Ke-li2(1.School of Natural Resources and Environmental Science,Sichuan Agriculture University,Yaan 625014;2.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)  
Runoff modulus can be expected to change in correspondence to changes in climate.It is helpful for effectively using water resources and resolving drought and flood in karst regional to analyze the response of runoff to global climate changes.This study was conducted to assess the potential effects of climate change on runoff modulus in karst area of Guizhou under scenarios A2 and B2 with HadCM3 for the periods of 2020s,2050s and 2080s.In order to calculate runoff modulus in the three periods it is necessary that rainfall and runoff modulus be collected which comes from Hydrology Record of Yangtze River(1956-1979) and Survey and Appraise Water Resource Exploiting and Utilizing in Guizhou Province.Rainfall record of 2020s,2050s and 2080s under scenario A2 and B2 should be downloaded from IPCC Data Distribution Centre.Runoff modulus can be calculated by means of DELTA and relationship between rainfall and runoff modulus.Spatial distribution maps of changing trends of runoff modulus were accomplished by Geographic Information System software.The result showed that changing trend of runoff was determined by rainfall.Runoff modulus showed a notable increase both in scenario A2 and B2 across Guizhou except for a small area.Runoff modulus decreased in Zuiyi and Tongren under scenario A2 and B2 from 1980s to 2020s.The spatial distribution of increasing runoff modulus is different.Under scenario A2 runoff modulus have the maximal increasing trends in Qian Xi-nan,the increase range is 0.5~0.9 L/(km2·s) from 1980s to 2020s.The increase range of runoff modulus is greater than 2 L/(km2·s) in east of Guizhou from 2020s to 2050s.Runoff modulus increasing trend has reached 3.5~4.4 L/(km2·s) in east of Qian Dong-nan,Qian Nan and south of Qian Dong-nan from 2050s to 2080s.Under scenario B2 runoff modulus have the maximal increasing trends in Qian Xi-nan and south of Qian Nan,the increase range is 1.0~1.6 L/(km2·s) from 1980s to 2020s.The increase range of runoff modulus is 1.0~1.5 L/(km2·s) in south of Qian Xi-nan,Qian Nan and Qian Dong-nan from 2020s to 2050s.Runoff modulus increasing trend has reached 1.5~1.9 L/(km2·s) in Qian Dong-nan from 2050s to 2080s.South of Guizhou is the most obvious area that runoff modulus increased great both in scenario A2 and B2.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41071184)
【CateGory Index】: S157
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