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《Electric Power Construction》 2017-07
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Wind Power Time Series Model Based on Improved Markov Chain

ZHAO Yu;XIAO Bai;GU Bing;WANG Xiaoyi;ZHANG Yu;WANG Chenglong;Northeast Electric Power University;  
The simulation of wind power time series is of great significance in the planning and evaluation of wind power grid-connected systems. In order to solve the problem that the original Markov chain can not keep its autocorrelation in wind power modeling,this paper constructs a wind power time series model based on improved Markov chain. This paper firstly analyzes the seasonal characteristics,daily characteristics and fluctuation characteristics of wind power; and then subdivides the wind power data according to different months and time periods to generate the corresponding state transition probability matrix. Finally,this paper fits the probability distribution of wind power fluctuation and increase the amount of fluctuation to establish the wind power time series model based on improved Markov chain. The case analysis shows that the wind power series generated by the proposed model is superior to the existing model in the aspects of general statistical parameters,probability density distribution and autocorrelation,while preserving the historical sequence autocorrelation.
【CateGory Index】: TM614
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
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【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 WANG Jing;YU Hang;ZHANG Xin;Shenzhen Power Supply Company Limited;;A novel high-voltage static var compensator based on magnetic-controlled switch[J];山东理工大学学报(自然科学版);2017-05
2 WANG Hongkun;GE Leijiao;LI Hongwei;CHI Fujian;School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Tianjin University;Mechanical and Electrical Institute,Shihezi University;State Grid Tianjin Electrical Power Company;;A Review on Characteristic Analysis and Prediction Method of Distributed PV[J];电力建设;2017-07
3 ZHAO Yu;XIAO Bai;GU Bing;WANG Xiaoyi;ZHANG Yu;WANG Chenglong;Northeast Electric Power University;;Wind Power Time Series Model Based on Improved Markov Chain[J];电力建设;2017-07
4 ZHANG Xiaoying;JIA Lei;WANG Kun;ZHANG Labao;CHEN Wei;School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Lanzhou University of Technology;State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company Electric Power Research Institute;School of Electronic Science and Engineering,Nanjing University;;Probabilistic risk assessment of ATC based on reflective slice sampling for power system with wind farm[J];电力自动化设备;2017-07
5 ZHONG Jia-qing;LI Mao-lin;JIANG Jing;ZHANG Xiao-hui;Key Laboratory of Power Electronics for Energy Conservation and Motor Drive of Hebei Province,Yanshan University;;Method of wind/solar output forecast error analysis based on Copula theory[J];电工电能新技术;2017-06
6 SHANG Lian-yong;ZHANG Qiang;LU Wen-qin;School of Electric Power Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology;;Research Status and Prospect of Reliability of Power Distribution Network Containing Photovoltaic Power Generation[J];电工电气;2017-06
7 CHEN Tong;SUN Guoqiang;WEI Zhinong;LI Huijie;CHEUNG KWOK W;SUN Yonghui;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University;ALSTOM Grid Technology Center Co.Ltd.;ALSTOM Grid Technology Inc.;;Power Generation Forecasting for Photovoltaic System Based on Spiking Neural Network[J];电力系统及其自动化学报;2017-06
8 GENG Bo;GAO Zhenyan;BAI Hengyuan;HE Wei;DONG Wenjie;ZHAO Youguo;Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau Co.,Ltd;Dongfang Electronics Co.,Ltd;;PV Generation Forecasting Combined with Similar Days and GA-BP Neural Network[J];电力系统及其自动化学报;2017-06
9 LIANG Haifeng;CAO Dawei;LIU Bo;LIU Zixing;ZHENG Can;LI Peng;School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University;State Grid Anxin Power Supply Company;;Modeling and Error Analysis of Wind Farm Probability Distribution Model[J];华北电力大学学报(自然科学版);2017-03
10 HUANG Hongcheng;GU Jie;FANG Chen;Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Transformation of Ministry of Education,Shanghai Jiao Tong University;Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company;;Impact of Correlations Between Wind and Solar Resources Characteristics on Distribution Network Reconfiguration[J];电力系统及其自动化学报;2017-05
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 JIANG Ping;HUO Yuchong;ZHANG Long;LUO Jianyu;LI Haifeng;School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University;State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company;;A Wind Speed Time Series Model Based on Advanced First-order Markov Chain Approach[J];电力系统自动化;2014-19
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6 WANG Fei;MI Zengqiang;ZHEN Zhao;YANG Guang;ZHOU Haiming;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System With Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University);China Electric Power Research Institute;;A Classified Forecasting Approach of Power Generation for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Weather Condition Pattern Recognition[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-34
7 ZHU Xingyang,LIU Wenxia,ZHANG Jianhua(State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System With Renewable Energy Sources(North China Electric Power University),Changping District,Beijing 102206,China);Probabilistic Load Flow Method Considering Large-scale Wind Power Integration[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-07
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