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《Progress In Geography》 2002-06
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Evolution Trend of Miyun Reservoir Inflow and Its Motivating Factors Analysis

GAO Yingchun, YAO Zhijun, LIU Baoqin, LU Aifeng(Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing100101 China)  
Stochastic hydrology methods are used to analyze the characteristics of annual inflow evolution of Miyun reservoir. The result has shown that the amount of annual inflow of the Miyun reservoir tends to decrease exponentially from 1954 to 1990 in general. Moreover, flood peak decreases extremely in both quantity and proportion, and its decreasing extent is higher than that of common runoff. At the mean time, evolution trend shows apparent periods. In order to find out the motivating factors of annual inflow evolution, we analyzed the relationship between precipitation and runoff. Through correlation analyzing, it is quite clear that the change of annual inflow was partly dependent on precipitation. But the precipitation is not the major motivating force of the evolution, and climate changes have only little influence to inflow decreasing. The annual inflow of Miyun reservoir responds directly to human activities, especially after 1960. Experimental result shows that it is obvious that the annual inflow decreasing is mainly caused by human activities, such as extreme population increase and land use changes.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KXCX-SW-317);; 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所知识创新工程项目领域前沿(CXIOG-A00-07)资助
【CateGory Index】: P333.2
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