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《Scientia Geographica Sinica》 1998-06
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ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF GRAIN PRODUCTION POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST REGION

Liu Xingtu Tong Lianjun (Changchun Institute of Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130021)Wu Zhijie Liang Wenju(Shenyang Institute of Applied Ecology, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110015)Bing Yinzhong Wang Jianguo (Heilongjiang Institute of Agriculture Modernization , the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Harbin 150040)  
On the basis of systematic analysis of developing process and cause of grain production in northeast region, according to statistical data, remote sensing survey of resources and environment and field investigation, the latest data of fixed position test, this paper expounds the potentials in such aspects as the platation relating to grain increase and macro-agriculture structure adjustment, middle and low yield farmland transformation, material input for water resource exploitation, scientific techniques and policies input.With the land biological production capacity model and trend it is predicted that the comprehensive production capacity of grain in northeast region in 2010 and 2030 will reach 1023 - 1038 billion kg and 126. 5 - 133. 8 billion kg respectively.Based on two standards of 400kg and 460kg of grain demand per capita, it is predicted that by 2030 the commercial grain provided by this region can meet 50% of grain demand of newly increased population of China.This region has huge potetial of increase grain yield. But there exist a lot of difficulties and problems, mainly poor agricultural infrastructure, low anti-disaster capacity. The following suggestions are made that is, to continue to strengthen input to the policies, materials, techniques and funds for middle and low yield farmland transformation, commercial grain base construction, to carry out "deliver water from north to south" project, stabilize grain sowing area, to establish multiple food production system, to improve agricultural eco-environment, to insist on sustainable development.
【Fund】: 中国科学院农业项目办资助
【CateGory Index】: F327
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