The Impact of Climatic Change on the Climate Zones in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
ZHAO Xin yi 1, ZHANG Hui yuan 2, WAN Jun 1 (1.Department of Urban and Environmental Sicences, Peking University, Beijing 100871; 2.Center of Environmental Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871)
The climatic change in the past and future can impact the nature and humankind, e.g. the change of climate elements can cause the change of climate zones, which will effect the natural regions and the activities of humankind. Based on the analysis of the change of temperature during the 1950s to the 1990s in the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, the change of the index indicating climate zones is discussed in this paper. Then the possible change of climate zones under the scenario of cliamtic change in the future is pointed out. In the past 40 years, the change of the index indicating climate zones is as below; 1) The period during which the daily mean temperature is above 10℃, is becoming longer by the rate of 2.0-4.0 d/10a in some areas in the Plateau and is unchangeable in other areas. 2) In the warm and cold times, the difference of the periods during which the daily mean temperature is above 10℃, is 0-20d. The monthly temperature in the month whose temperature is highest in a year, is larger by 0.1-2.0℃ in the warm time tham that in the cold time.Following the scenario of the 2.0℃ rising of the annual temperature in the plateau, the boundaries and areas of current climate zones will change, but the character of them is unchangeable. The change of those zones is: 1) The eastern boundary of plateau frigid zone will move westward by 1.0 degree so that the frigid zone will be limited on the west of 90°E in the future. 2) The eastern boundary of plateau sub frigid zone will move westward by 3.0 degree and reach the 100°E; the south eastern boundary of the sub frigid zone will shrink towards north west by 100km or so; the part of the plateau sub-frigid zone in the northern plateau will be small and have the character of plateau temperature zone . 3)The temperature zone in the future will expand in the plateau, especially in the eastern and northern parts; meanwhile the cumulated days with those days whose temperature ≥10℃ in the future will be more and the temperature of the warmest month will rise. 4)In the future the cumulated days with those days whose temperature ≥10℃ will be more in the sub tropical and tropical zones, but the boundaries of them are still.
【Fund】： 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (G19980 40 80 0 );; 中国科学院青藏高原研究项目 (KZ95 1-A1-2 0 4;KZ95T -0 6)
【CateGory Index】： P461
【CateGory Index】： P461