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《Scientia Geographica Sinica》 2002-05
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Possible Variations of Precipitation over the Yellow River Valley under the Global-warming Conditions

LIU Xiao-dong1, AN Zhi-sheng1, FANG Jian-gang2, CHEN Guang-shan1 (1. Institute of Earth Environment, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi′an, Shaanxi 710075; 2. Meteorological Bureau of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710015)  
Using the recent 50-year precipitation data observed at weather stations and nearly-400-year precipitation data reconstructed with historical documents and tree rings in the Yellow River valley, the relationship between variations of the precipitation and global average temperature was examined by regression and composite analyses. The results show that the higher (lower) global average temperature corresponds to the less(more)-than-normal precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River to a certain degree on different time scales. When the global mean air temperature increases by 1℃, the annual precipitation is found to decrease more than 20% over the middle reaches of the Yellow River from Shaanxi to Shanxi provinces. The difference between the annual precipitation averaged for the warmest three years and that for the coldest three years can reach 40% in the study area in last 50 years. However, the annual precipitation near the area of China-Mongolia boundary is decreased with the global warming. Our result from the observational study is consistent with that obtained from climate models under conditions of the atmospheric CO 2 doubling and the global climate warming. The present result also shows that August-September, late summer-early autumn, is a key period which determines inter-annual variations of annual precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The variation of August-September precipitation contributes more than 50% variance of inter-annual variability of annual precipitation in this area. Moreover, it is found that there is a close relationship between the rainfall anomaly and activity of the subtropical West Pacific High in August and September. A warmer global climate may intensify and enlarge the subtropical West Pacific High, thus induce the front of East Asian summer monsoon to move northwards and to act frequently there, and eventually bring about the decreased rainfall in the south side of north boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon. The situation will be opposite when the global climate becomes colder. This study suggests that we should pay great attention to the dryness induced by the global warming over the Yellow River valley.
【Fund】: 国家自然基金项目 ( 4 0 12 130 3、40 0 2 30 0 3、90 10 2 0 17);; 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (G19990 4340 1);; 中国科学院院长基金。
【CateGory Index】: P426
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