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《Scientia Geographica Sinica》 2009-03
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Urban Land Expansion Simulation Model Based on SD and CA——A Case Study of Nantong City

QIN Xian-hong1,2,DUAN Xue-jun2,LI Hui1,2,LU Yu-tian3 (1.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;2.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210008;3.Jiangsu Institute of Urban Planning and Design,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210024)  
The system dynamics model which is called SD for short has an advantage on describing prospective sights and predicting urban land growth macroscopically,while the cellular automata which is called CA for short has an advantage on simulating urban land expansion microscopically.So this paper integrates their macro and micro advantages,designs an coupling model for the urban land expansion,and also does a case study in Nantong City of Jiangsu Province.The results show that this coupling model can not only predict a good amount on urban land growth in time,but also simulate urban land expansion with a relatively precision in space,thus urban planning has a relatively scientific basis on analyzing urban land expansion in future.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40671077);; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(kzcx2-yw-321);; 南通市城市总体规划修编(2007-2020)前期研究项目资助
【CateGory Index】: F293.2
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