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《Scientia Geographica Sinica》 2009-04
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Land Use Scenarios Simulation Based on CLUE-S and Markov Composite Model——A Case Study of Taihu Lake Rim in Jiangsu Province

LU Ru-cheng1,2,HUANG Xian-jin1,ZUO Tian-hui1,XIAO Si-si3,ZHAO Xiao-feng1,ZHANG Xing-yu1(1.College of Geography and Oceanography Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210093;2.College of Resources and Environmental Science,Guangxi Teachers Education University,Nanning,Guangxi 530001; 3.School of the Environment,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu 212013)  
Based on the remote sensing image in the years 1990,2000 and 2005,combined with regional DEM,traffic map,residential area maps and so on,this paper simulated the land use change scenarios through the application of CLUE-S,Markov composite model and GIS,explored the trend of land use change in different scenarios.The results show that CLUE-S and Markov composite model can simulate spatial and temporal land use changes in Taihu Lake rim.In simulation of the future land use scenarios,"scenarioⅠ" assumes that simulation of the land use change scenarios will obey the current land transfer rate.The result shows construction land will increase sharply and paddy fields reduce immensely in 2015.However,the "scenarioⅡ" supposes that land use change scenarios will follow the policy of strictly protecting cultivated land based on the constraints of land use planning,the rate which paddy field and dry land convert construction land will be slow down 50% and 20% from 2005.The reducing rate of paddy fields will less reduce 21.16%,and increasing the rate of construction land will less increased 20.82% in 2015 than the current land transfer rate's scenario.For future regional land use regulation and management and in order to ensure food security and scientific land use,and promote rational economic growth around the Taihu Lake Region,it is important to strengthen the protection of cultivated land and control the construction land area.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40801063);; 江苏省国土资源厅重大科技项目“江苏省环太湖地区国土资源承载力及调控措施研究”资助
【CateGory Index】: F301.24
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