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《Scientia Geographica Sinica》 2017-04
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Spatial Scenario Simulation and Landscape Ecological Effect Based on Construction Land Expansion of Nantong City

Yang Qingke;Duan Xuejun;Jin Zhifeng;Wang lei;Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences;Jiangsu Institute of Land Surveying and Planning;  
Modeling and scenario analysis are the core content of the research on the spatial expansion of construction land.On account of the rapid urbanization process and the special geographical position,Nantong is chosen as the study case in this paper.We employ the hybrid model of CLUE-S and Auto-logistic regression to project the likelihood map of land use distribution,and then simulate the dynamic distribution of the expansion of construction land.We acquire a series of knowledge rules by analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of construction land expansion from four time periods of remote sensing images since 1987.The future expansion of construction land under different cenarios is then simulated based on the baseline model,economic development model,ecological conservation model.Through the landscape ecology knowledge we analyze the ecological environment effect of construction land expansion under different scenarios.Key results emerge:since 1987,the expansion of construction land in Nantong has been rapid,which is spreading intensely around the city and the town center on the space.It's presented that the alternate rule of cyclical fluctuations in the form of‘axis growth—interior filled'.At the meanwhile,the Kappa and PCM coefficients also show that the hybrid model has high reliability and can be applied to the simulation of the spatial distribution of construction land in the future.The simulation results declare that the expansion of construction land is concentrated in the urban area and towns around,and there is an obvious expansion trend towards the east coast under the economic development scenario.Due to the intense expansion,it's very obvious that the spatial pattern tends to merge into the larger districts in the concentration area of construction land.The patch density and landscape shape index of the construction land expansion are both high,the landscape pattern tends to be unstable,and the fragmentation is also relatively severe.Therefore,not only control the amount of construction land expansion in the future land use,but also optimize the spatial landscape pattern,which can provide scientific basis for land intensive use,urban growth boundary control and ecosystem management of Nantong City.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(41601169)资助~~
【CateGory Index】: K902
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