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《Journal of Dalian University of Technology》 2010-05
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Study of sustainable evolution track of regional water resources complex system

ZHANG Qiang*1,WANG Ben-de1,HE Bin1,CONG Fang-jie2(1.Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;2.Network and Educational Technology Center,Yantai University,Yantai 264000,China)  
Regional water resources complex system(RWRCS)has been developing with different Stype patterns.Due to the linearity of Logistic(L)model,L curve can not express the diversity of evolution pattern,so the Richards(R)model is introduced which is more flexible to describe the evolution diversity of RWRCS.By analyzing the evolution characteristics,the evolution patterns are classified into three types:symmetrical developing type(SDT),rapid developing in earlier stage type(RDET)and rapid developing in later stage type(RDLT),and it is considered that the prophase in peak stage of RDET and the anaphase in starting stage of RDLT are also sustainable utilization optimum timing of RWRCS.Furthermore,the long-term process of the sustainable evolution is explored.It is indicated that the long-term process of the sustainable evolution is a combination of continuous gradual change and discontinuous fluctuations.In the end,Dalian City is taken as an example to research evolution track of RWRCS.The results show that the evolution process of Dalian water resources complex system(DWRCS)exhibited obvious S-type in 1980-1988and 1990-1998,and the evolution patterns of these two passages were RDET.In 1980-2007,the fluctuations existed in the gradual change process,but the evolution process of DWRCS basically corresponds to S-type,and the evolution pattern is RDLT.
【Fund】: “十一五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(重点项目2007BAB28B01)
【CateGory Index】: TV213.9
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