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《Electric Power Science and Engineering》 2008-04
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Application of Improved GM (1,1) Model in Load Forecasting

Niu Dongxiao,Jia Jianrong(School of Business Administration,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China)  
Gray forecasting model is suitable for load forecasting,because its principle is simple and calculation is convenient in small sample.But there are many limitations.This paper used Least Square Method and Integration Method to improve two of the most important factors of model accuracy,the initial value and the background value,based on modeling principles.The improved model showed better effect applied to the historical data of power consumption from 1999 to 2005 in Beijing.
【Fund】: 高等学校博士点专项基金(20040079008);; 河北省自然科学基金资助项目(G2005000584)
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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