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《Electric Power Science and Engineering》 2008-04
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Application of Improved GM (1,1) Model in Load Forecasting

Niu Dongxiao,Jia Jianrong(School of Business Administration,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China)  
Gray forecasting model is suitable for load forecasting,because its principle is simple and calculation is convenient in small sample.But there are many limitations.This paper used Least Square Method and Integration Method to improve two of the most important factors of model accuracy,the initial value and the background value,based on modeling principles.The improved model showed better effect applied to the historical data of power consumption from 1999 to 2005 in Beijing.
【Fund】: 高等学校博士点专项基金(20040079008);; 河北省自然科学基金资助项目(G2005000584)
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 FAN Ying,GUO Jian-wei (Suzhou Power Supply Company,Suzhou 215004,China);The improvement and application of grey model for electric power load forecasting[J];Power Demand Side Management;2006-02
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 WANG Feng-xiao (Dept. of Mathematics and Computer, Shanxi College of Technology, Hanzhong 723001, China);Nonequigap Gray Forecast Model Based on a Normalized Mapping[J];Journal of Anqing Teachers College(Natural Science Edition);2005-03
2 XIAO Yancai1,CHEN Xiuhai2,ZHU Hengjun1(1.School of Mechanical and Electronic Control Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;2.Beijing Electric Power Corporation,Beijing 100031,China);Improved Discrete Grey Model and Its Application[J];Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University;2008-01
3 QIAN Longxia1) LIU Mingguo2) HUANG Zhanfeng3)GAO Xiong4) WANG Hongrui1)(1)College of Water Sciences,Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China;2)Water Conservancy and Hydropower Investigation and Design Institute of Sichuan province,618000,Chengdu,China;3)Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research,430010,Wuhan,China;4)School of Mathematical Science,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China);A MODEL FOR DYNAMIC FORECASTING WITH RECURSIVE COMPENSATION BY GREY NUMBERS OF IDENTICAL DIMENSIONS BASED ON AUTOCORRELATION ANALYSIS.THEORY AND APPLICATIONS[J];Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science);2008-06
4 CHEN Liang1,TIAN De-bao2 1.School of P.E.& Sports Science,Qufu Normal University,Qufu 273165,China;2.Dept.of P.E.,Binzhou College,Binzhou 256600,China.;The Application Research of the Reconstructed GM(1,1) Model of Background Value in Sports[J];Journal of Capital Institute of Physical Education;2006-06
5 ZOU Changwu1,HE Xiaogang1,DING Jin2 (1. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610041, China; 2. School f Hydroelectricity, SCU, Chengdu 610065, China);Numerical experiment on prediction effect of GM(1,1)[J];Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology;2003-04
6 MA Ping1,ZHANG Yinhui2,YUE Qiang3,YANG Yinsheng3(1.Food college,Heilongjiang August Frist Land Reclamation University,Daqing 163319;2.Shenzhen Polytechnic Col-lege,Shenzhen 518055;3.College of Biological and Agricultural Engineering,Jilin University,Changchun 130022);Study on the integrated GM(1,1) model[J];Journal of Changchun University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition);2008-02
7 HU Ying-dong,SUN Yong-rong,YU Jie-jie,XIONG Zhi(College of Automation Engineering,Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China);Research on building deformation based on multi-antenna GPS[J];Transducer and Microsystem Technologies;2008-11
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10 Wu Wenbin~1,Tang Jingjing~1,Xu Wenji~2,Dong Haixiang~3(1.Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450052,China;2.Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;3.North China University of Water Conservancy And Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450001,China);Application of Time Serial Synthetical Analysis in Experiment on Flexible Forming of Sheet Metal[J];Electromachining & Mould;2006-05
【Co-references】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 FAN Lu-ming,HE Guo-guang(Institute of Systems Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China);Application Improvement of Nonparametric Regression to Traffic Flow Forecast[J];Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science);2008-01
2 Chen Shuyan 1, 2 Wang Wei 1( 1College of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)( 2 Optoelectronics Key Laboratory of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing Normal Un iversity, Nanjing 210097, China);Grey neural network forecasting for traffic flow[J];Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition);2004-04
3 YANG Shi-jian,HE Guo-guang (Institute of Systems Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072,China);A Short-term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on Combination of Fuzzy C-mean Clustering and Neural Network[J];Systems Engineering;2004-08
4 ZHANG Xiao-li~(1,2),HE Guo-guang~1(1.Institute of Systems Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;2.School of Management,HeBei University,Baoding 071002,China);The Combined Forecasting Approach Based on Non-Parametric Regression for Short-term Traffic Flow of Roads with Parking Spaces[J];Systems Engineering;2006-12
5 Wang Jin Shi Qixin;The summery of the short-term traffic flow predicts model[J];China Public Security;2005-01
6 CHEN Shu-yan,CHEN Jia-sheng (Jiangsu Province Optoelectronics Important Laboratory, Nanjing Normal University,JiangsuNanjing210097,China);Application of A Novel Grey Model to Traffic Flow Prediction[J];Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development;2004-02
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