THE EVALUATION ON CLIMATIC INFORMATION IN THE HISTORICAL LITERATURES
Ge Quansheng Zhang Peiyuan (Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing)
This paper documents methods of evaluating the climatic information extracted from Chinese historical literatures. Relevant sources include local gazettes, official histories, memorial to the emperor and personal and private writings. Some indexes has been developed to modify climatic information in three aspects, they are: the time interval between the climatic event occurred and when it was recorded, the distanc between the event and where it was recorded, and the ability in language of the writer's explanation. After some numerical treatments, it shows that:(l) The realiability of climatic information is not only determined by the accuracy of the data, but also by the distribution and resolution of the data. (2) The more grades divided, the more uncertaincy will appears. (3) The larger variance schedulled, the more information would be available.