RELATIVER SEA LEVEL RISE IN HUANGHE, CHANGJIANG AND ZHUJIANG (YELLOW, YANGTZE AND PEARL RIVER)DELTA OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS AND PREDICATION FOR THE NEXT 40 YEARS(2030)
Ren Mei-e (Department of Geo and Ocean Sciences and State Pilot Laboratory for Island and Coastal Exploitation, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008)
In Huanghe Changjiang and Zhujiang(Yellow,Yangtze and Pearl River)Delta,China,owing to tectonic sinking,sediment compaction and man-induced land subsidence (chiefly due to over-pumping of ground water) ,relative sea level rise over the last 30 years is much greater than mean rate of sea level rise of the world and China. In Tianjin coast,rate of relative sea level rise is more than 10 times that of the global and China's mean rate. For the next century,according to the best estimate of IPCC,global sea level rise in 2030 will be 18cm . In the three Chinese deltas, considering local land subsidence and the current and projected mitigation measures of the local authorities, it is estimated that relative sea level rise in 2030 will be 60cm,in Old Huanghe Delta (Tianjin area), 30 - 40cm in Changjiang Delta (Shanghai area)and 20-25cm in Zhujiang Delta. It is hoped that these estimates of relative sea level rise in 2030 may be useful to policy makers in formulating future coastal management plans and development policies.