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Theoretical Model and Trend Analysis on Mountainous Economic Development Stages in China

CHEN Guojie1, WANG Qing1,2(1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, CAS, Chengdu 610041, China; 2. Taiyuan Normal College, Taiyuan 030006, China)  
The mountainous economic development depends on the macro-scale backgrounds of the whole country as well as the laws of regional economic developmental stages. In each stage, regional economic development has distinctly industrial structures and economic driving forces. In this paper, based on analysis of regional developmental mechanism, the authors propose a temporal spatial conception model (T = S model), which reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimension. By using the T = S model, four conclusions have been drawn: First, both the phase and states of mountainous economic development of China in the next 5, 10 and 20 years have been simulated. Second, the authors predict that per capita GDP of mountainous regions will reach 8000 yuan RMB in 2005, and about 12000 yuan RMB in 2010. Third, the shift of mountainous economic development stage was scheduled. Finally, some suggestions concerning policies relative to the shifting conditions were put forward.
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