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《Acta Geographica Sinica》 2004-05
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Precipitation Simulation in China with a Weather Generator

LIAO Yaoming1,2, ZHANG Qiang1,2, CHEN Deliang1,2,3(1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;2. Laboratory of Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;3. Earth Sciences Centre, Gothenburg University, Sweden)  
Weather generator is an important tool in studying impacts of weather/climate on a variety of systems including ecosystem and risk assessment. The purpose of this work is to develop a weather generator for applications in China. The focus is on precipitation simulation since determination of other weather variables such as temperature is dependent on precipitation simulation. A framework of first order Markov Chain with Gamma Distribution for daily precipitation is adopted in this work. Based on this framework four parameters for precipitation simulation for each month at 672 stations all over China are determined using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2000. Compared with previous works, our estimation for the parameters is made for more stations and longer observations, which makes the weather generator more applicable and reliable. The spatial distribution of the four parameters is analyzed in a regional climate context. The seasonal variation of the parameters at five stations representing regional differences is discussed. Based on the estimated monthly parameters at the 672 stations, daily precipitations for any period of time can be simulated. A 30 year simulation is made and compared with observations during 1971-2000 in terms of annual and monthly statistics.
【Fund】: 国家气象中心项目(ZK2003C-12);; 中国科学院海外杰出学者基金;; 科技部项目(2001BA611B-01);; 瑞典STINT基金会资助项目~~
【CateGory Index】: P461
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