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《Acta Geographica Sinica》 2016-07
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The vulnerability evolution and simulation of the social-ecological systems in the semi-arid area based on the VSD framework

CHEN Jia;YANG Xinjun;YIN Sha;WU Kongsen;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University;  
Taking the semi- arid area of Yulin City as an example, this study improves the vulnerability assessment methods and techniques on the county scale using VSD(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) assessment framework, integrates the VSD framework and SERV(Spatially Explicit Resilience- Vulnerability) model, and decomposes the system vulnerability into three dimensions including exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Firstly, with the full understanding of the background and exposure risk source of the research area, the vulnerability indexes were screened out by the SERV model and the index system was constructed to assess the characteristics of the local eco-environment. Secondly, with the aid of RS and GIS, this study measured the spatial differentiation and evolution of social- ecological systems in Yulin City during the period 2000- 2011 and explored intrinsic reasons for spatialtemporal evolution of vulnerability. The results are as follows:(1) The spatial pattern of Yulin City's SESs vulnerability is "high in northwest and southeast and low along the Great Wall",although the degree of system vulnerability reduced significantly during the period 2000-2011 and the system development trend is better, there is a sharp distinction in the spatial distribution between the system vulnerability and exposure risk;(2) The evolution of system vulnerability is influenced by the risk factors of exposure, and the regional vulnerability and the spatial heterogeneity of exposure risk are affected by the social sensitivity, economic adaptive capacity and other factors. Finally, according to the uncertainty of decision makers, the future scenarios of regional vulnerability are simulated under different decision risks by taking advantage of the OWA multi- criteria algorithm, and the vulnerability of regional system under different development directions was predicted based on the decision makers' rational risk interval.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41571163);; 陕西高校人文社会科学青年英才支持计划~~
【CateGory Index】: F127;X2
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