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Optimized exponential smoothing for load forecast

TAN Feng-lei;ZHANG Zhao-jun;ZHU Chao;ZHANG Jun;Maintenance Branch Company,Jiangsu Electric Power Company;  
A method for optimized exponential smoothing based on fuzzy theory is proposed,which considers the ambient temperature,weather conditions and type of dates three factors,and the optimized exponential smoothing is established based on thought of single exponential smoothing.Weather conditions and type of dates are fuzzed based on understanding the basic principles of single exponential smoothing,and the implementation process of improved smoothing method is derived in detail.Simulated annealing based on least squares is adopted to obtain optimal parameters,finally which is used in actual engineering for analyzing.Results show that the method has high precision forecast,and can reduce the required effort for selecting the smoothing parameter,which meet the needs of the system operators and can get a better practical application.
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