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《Power Demand Side Management》 2016-06
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Optimized exponential smoothing for load forecast

TAN Feng-lei;ZHANG Zhao-jun;ZHU Chao;ZHANG Jun;Maintenance Branch Company,Jiangsu Electric Power Company;  
A method for optimized exponential smoothing based on fuzzy theory is proposed,which considers the ambient temperature,weather conditions and type of dates three factors,and the optimized exponential smoothing is established based on thought of single exponential smoothing.Weather conditions and type of dates are fuzzed based on understanding the basic principles of single exponential smoothing,and the implementation process of improved smoothing method is derived in detail.Simulated annealing based on least squares is adopted to obtain optimal parameters,finally which is used in actual engineering for analyzing.Results show that the method has high precision forecast,and can reduce the required effort for selecting the smoothing parameter,which meet the needs of the system operators and can get a better practical application.
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 GUO Yu-jie;YUAN Xiao-ling;LI Chang-ming;LIU Hao-ming;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University;Zhongli Talesun Science and Technology Co., Ltd.;;Short-term forecasting for photovoltaic power generation based on optimal similar set[J];电力需求侧管理;2015-06
2 TAN Feng-lei;MIAO Zhen-lin;Southeast University;;Combined summer load forecast with the break of accumulated temperature effect[J];电力需求侧管理;2014-02
3 ZHANG Shao-di1,2(1.Shanghai Key Laboratory of Smart Grid Demand Response,Shanghai 200063,China;2.Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200063,China);Algorithm of short-time load forecast based on PSO-BP neural network[J];现代电子技术;2013-12
4 JIN Li li1,TAN Feng lei2,WU Zhi jian1,BI Rui hua2,WANG Bao an2(1. Yangzhou Electric Power Supply Company,Yangzhou 225000,China;2. Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;3. Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China);The study of load forecasting accounting accumulated temperature effect[J];电力需求侧管理;2013-01
5 JIANG Jiandong1,CHENG Zhihao1,ZHU Mingjia2(1.School of Electrical Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China; 2.Jiyuan Power Supply Company,Jiyuan 454650,China);Combined short-term load forecast with accumulated temperature effect[J];电力自动化设备;2011-10
6 LI Jin1,LIU Jinpeng2,WANG Jianjun2(1.School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Haidian District,Beijing 100083,China; 2.School of Business Administration,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China);Mid-long Term Load Forecasting Based on Simulated Annealing and SVM Algorithm[J];中国电机工程学报;2011-16
7 Chen Juan1 Ji Peirong1 Lu Feng2(1.College of Electrical Engineering & Renewable Energy,China Three Gorges Univ.,Yichang 443002,China;2.Jingzhou Power Supply Company,Jingzhou 434023,China);Exponential Smoothing Method and Its Application to Load Forecasting[J];三峡大学学报(自然科学版);2010-03
8 ZHU Zhen-wei1,FANG Ge-fei1,WANG Guo-fu2,XU Xiang-hai3(1.College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang Univ.,Hangzhou 310027,China;2.Nari-Relays Electric Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 211000,China;3.Hangzhou Electric Power Bureau,Hangzhou 310007,China);Characteristic analysis for summer weather sensitive loads of power grids[J];华东电力;2008-09
9 GENG Yan,HAN Xue-shan,HAN Li (School of Electrical Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,Shandong Province,China);Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Least Squares Support Vector Machines[J];电网技术;2008-18
10 LI Po,LI Min,LIU Di-chen(School of Electrical Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China);Power Load Forecasting Based on Improved Regression[J];电网技术;2006-01
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 8 Hits
1 TAN Feng-lei;ZHANG Zhao-jun;ZHU Chao;ZHANG Jun;Maintenance Branch Company,Jiangsu Electric Power Company;;Optimized exponential smoothing for load forecast[J];电力需求侧管理;2016-06
2 XING Yahong;DU Xinhui;College of Electrical and Power Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology;;Grid Load Forecasting and Planning Method for Distribution Network Based on Greedy Algorithm[J];计算机工程;2016-11
3 YANG Ji-rui;ZHAO Hai-tao;LIU Nan-jie;College of Communication and Information Engineering,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications;Institute of Network DNA Engineering,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications;;Modified Cubic Exponential Smoothing Algorithm and Its Application on IoV[J];计算机技术与发展;2016-11
4 MA Jian;DI Kaili;LI Rui;State Grid Tianjin Binhai Electric Power Supply Corporation;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University;State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Maintenance Branch Company;;A Multi-Layer Optimization Method of Price Incentive Demand Response for Improving Photovoltaic Power Accommodation Rate of Microgrid[J];中国电力;2016-08
5 ;Primary Air Flow Prediction Based on Adaptive Mutation SAPSO-LSSVM for Coal Mill[J];自动化仪表;2016-07
6 LIU Chunming;HUANG Caichen;PAN Mingming;YANG Jianan;YAN Xudong;School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University;China Electric Power Research Institute;;Optimal Configuration of Capacitor Blocking Devices for Suppressing DC Bias in Transformers[J];高电压技术;2016-07
7 ZHANG Haibo;LI Penghua;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources,North China Electric Power University;;Correction Method for Sampling Errors of External Network Measurements Based on Predictor-Corrector[J];电力系统自动化;2016-13
8 LONG Yu;WANG Xiaoying;ZHOU Qi;JIANG Nan;LUO Xin;State Grid Jiangsu Provincial Electrical Power Company;Beijing Tsingsoft Technology Co., Ltd.;;The Medium-and Long-Term Power Demand Forecasting for Jiangsu Province with Consideration of Different Developing Situations[J];中国电力;2016-07
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 BAI Jun-liang;MEI Hua-wei;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources,North China Electric Power University;;Improved similarity based fuzzy clustering algorithm and its application in the PV array power short-term forecasting[J];电力系统保护与控制;2014-06
2 YUAN Xiaoling;SHI Junhua;XU Jieyan;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University;State Grid Energy Conservation Service Corporation;;Short-term Power Forecasting for Photovoltaic Generation Considering Weather Type Index[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-34
3 ZHANG Shao-di1,2(1.Shanghai Key Laboratory of Smart Grid Demand Response,Shanghai 200063,China;2.Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200063,China);Algorithm of short-time load forecast based on PSO-BP neural network[J];现代电子技术;2013-12
4 SUN Qian1,YAO Jiangang1,ZHAO Jun2,JIN Min1,MAO Lifan3,MAO Tian1(1.College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,Hunan Province,China;2.Yiyang Dispatching Station of Hunan Electric Power Company,Yiyang 413000,Hunan Province,China;3.Electric Power of Hainan,Haikou 571000,Hainan Province,China);Short-term Bus Load Integrated Forecasting Based on Selecting Optimal Intersection Similar Days[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-04
5 LI Jia-long1,LI Xiao-yan2,LIU Si-jie1,WEN Fu-shuan3,GUO Wen-tao2(1.Power Dispatch and Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid,Guangzhou 510600,China; 2.School of Electric Power,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China; 3.School of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China);Short-term load forecasting considering the accumulative effects of temperatures[J];华北电力大学学报(自然科学版);2013-01
6 JIN Li li1,TAN Feng lei2,WU Zhi jian1,BI Rui hua2,WANG Bao an2(1. Yangzhou Electric Power Supply Company,Yangzhou 225000,China;2. Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;3. Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China);The study of load forecasting accounting accumulated temperature effect[J];电力需求侧管理;2013-01
7 WANG Xiaolan 1,2,GE Pengjiang 1(1.College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China;2.Key Laboratory of Gansu Advanced Control for Industrial Processes,Lanzhou 730050,China);PV array output power forecasting based on similar day and RBFNN[J];电力自动化设备;2013-01
8 LI Jian-hong1,CHEN Guo-ping2,GE Peng-jiang2,ZHOU Shu-liang3,FU Yi-ping3,CHEN Ye3(1.Hunan Electrical Apparatus Research Institute,Changsha 410009,China;2.Lanzhou University of Science and Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China;3.TBEA Hengyang transformer Co.,LTD,Hengyang 421007,China);Output Power Forecasting of PV Generation System Based on Similar Day Theory[J];华东电力;2012-01
9 JIANG Jiandong1,CHENG Zhihao1,ZHU Mingjia2(1.School of Electrical Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China; 2.Jiyuan Power Supply Company,Jiyuan 454650,China);Combined short-term load forecast with accumulated temperature effect[J];电力自动化设备;2011-10
10 LI Jin1,LIU Jinpeng2,WANG Jianjun2(1.School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Haidian District,Beijing 100083,China; 2.School of Business Administration,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China);Mid-long Term Load Forecasting Based on Simulated Annealing and SVM Algorithm[J];中国电机工程学报;2011-16
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