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《Automation of Electric Power Systems》 2003-04
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PREDICTION OF ORIGINAL RELIABILITY PARAMETER OF POWER SYSTEMS BY AN IMPROVED GREY MODEL

Ren Zhen 1, Wan Guanquan 1, Huang Jinfeng 1, Huang Wenying 1, Gao Zhihua 2 (1. South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China) (2. Guangdong Province Power Dispatching Center, Guangzhou 510600, China)  
The electric power system reliability evaluation is based on the analyzing and establishing of the original reliability parameter. According to the lack of the original reliability parameter and the importance of exploiting original reliability parameter small stylebook systems to add the quantity of the data, an improved grey model is set up by improving the weighted average iteration and prediction algorithm of B matrix. The method uses four pieces of new messages to make compensation for the new and old messages by introducing weight, and adopt the metabolism grey prediction algorithm with adding new messages and abandoning old messages. So the calculation burden is reduced greatly, the function of new messages and prediction precision are improved. The numerical example for MTTF of newly used lines and the comparison of result precision between the traditional model and improved model indicate the correctness, availability and practicality of the proposed method.
【CateGory Index】: TM762
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