Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Automation of Electric Power Systems》 2004-06
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update


Gao Feng , Kang Chongqing , Xia Qing , Huang Yonghao , Shang Jincheng , Meng Yuanjing, He Nanqiang (Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China) (Henan Province Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, China)  
The diversity of models is an important issue in load forecasting. To improve the precision for forecasting, it is necessary to distinguish between better models and bad ones. But this task is very difficult. This paper proposes a novel multi-model automatic sifting methodology to solve this problem. The odds-matrix method of the new algorithm is used to calculate the weight of each model, which reflects the 'optimality' of an individual forecasting model. Thus, the efficiency of each model can be differentiated via evaluating probability distribution function of the weights. Numerical studies show that this method is satisfactory in improving forecasting precision.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究专项经费资助项目(G1998020311);; 清华大学基础研究基金资助项目(JC2002018)
【CateGory Index】: TM715
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved