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《Automation of Electric Power Systems》 2006-01
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Power System Operation Risk Assessment Based on Credibility Theory Part One Propound and Development of Operation Risk Assessment

FENG Yong-qing , ZHANG Bo-ming , WU Wen-chuan , SUN Hong-bin , HE Yun-liang ( State Key Lab of Power Systems, Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China) ( Jinghua Electric Power Bureau, Jinghua 321017, China)  
The basic concept of operation risk assessment is presented, and characteristic of the differences among operation risk assessment, deterministic security assessment of traditional power dispatching and power system reliability analysis are summarized. The main objectives of the operation risk assessment are at two aspects: one is to assess the uncertainty factors in power system operation quantitatively and build the index systems of operation risk assessment; the other is to coordinate the security and economy of power system synthetically by taking the operation risk assessment indexes as the decision means. The development prospects of operation risk assessment of power system are analyzed by drawing analogy with nuclear power plant. Some important progresses in relevant researches of operation risk assessment at the two respective aspects of component and system security assessments are presented, and traditional research methods using for reference are introduced, and the research train of thoughts on risk assessment is described as well.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2004CB217904) 清华大学博士生科研创新基金资助项目。~~
【CateGory Index】: TM732
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