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《Automation of Electric Power Systems》 2008-04
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Probabilistic Evaluation of Power System Operational Risk Based on Daily Generation Scheduling

WANG Chengliang1, ZHAO Yuan1, ZHOU Jiaqi1, LIU Wei1, HAN Songbo2(1. State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China; 2. Chongqing Water Conservancy Bureau, Chongqing 401147, China)  
To improve the accuracy of operational risk evaluation, an algorithm of operational risk evaluation is proposed, in which the time-variation of component’s operational state and the effect of under frequency load shedding are considered. In this algorithm the components are divided into two types, and the time-dependent outage probability of each type is deduced based on daily generation scheduling. Moreover, the impact of under frequency load shedding is taken into account. At last, the algorithm develops a series of risk indices, including loss of load expectation, off-limit indices and state indices. The calculation and analysis of IEEE-RTS 79 reliability test systems show that the proposed algorithm is effective.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2004CB217908);; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50607021)~~
【CateGory Index】: TM732
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