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《Geographical Research》 2001-06
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Spatio-temporal modelling of land use changes in transect of the Yangtse River and corresponding countermeasures

LONG Hua-lou 1, LI Xiu-bin 2 (1. Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China; 2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China)  
Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important component of global environmental change research, and terrestrial transect initiated by the international geosphere-biosphere programme (IGBP) is a suit of integrated global environmental change research, which emphasizes interpretation of global environmental change problems with grads methods. Taking transect as a series of coherent research sites, LUCC can determine how land use and corresponding land cover change under the influences of social and environmental factors. Transect of the Yangtse River (TYR), with obvious grads either in the change of physical environmental factors or in the level of socioeconomic development, was taken as a study area in this paper. Land use changes in several years or decades are mainly driven by socioeconomic factors and restricted by physical factors, and they can be mainly reflected by the changes of cultivated land and built-up land, which are tightly interrelated with human productive activities. Land use changes of TYR in future 30 years were modelled through applying revised Generalized Thunen-Ricardian model. It shows that, between 2000 and 2030, the area of cultivated land in eastern part will further decrease; however, the area of cultivated land and urban and rural settlements in overall will increase. According to the spatio-temporal characteristic of land use changes in future, corresponding countermeasures were put forward as the following to realize regional sustainable sustainable land use: (a) scientifically laying out city/town planning and strengthening reconstruction of old city zone; (b) strictly managing rural housing and carrying out aggregating scattered houses; (c) coordinating the relationship between land development and cultivated land protection; and (d) realizing regional sustainable socioeconomic development relying on resources and breaking the cycle of poverty and unsustainable land use.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程资助项目 (KZCX1-Y - 0 2 - 0 2 - 0 7 KZCX2 - 310 )
【CateGory Index】: F301.24
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