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《Geographical Research》 2002-02
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Modeling economic growth and environmental degradation of Beijing

WU Yu ping 1 , DONG Suo cheng 1 , SONG Jian feng 2 (1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2.Solid Waste Management Center, Bureau of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100032, Chi  
This paper empirically examines Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) with time series data from 1985 to 1999 and provides a basis for the environmental policy evaluation of Beijing. The results lead to two main conclusions:1) The environmental policy and the environmental investment of Beijing municipal and central governments have made the turning point of EKC come early, being around 10000 15000 yuan at constant price of 1978, or 25000 40000 yuan at present price of 1999, or 3000 5000 US dollars by exchange rates of middle price in the year end of 1999, or 15000 20000 US dollars calculated in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) way,and if the GDP per capita grows at the rate of 8%, the turning point will come true during 2005 2010. 2)The relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation takes on an inverted U, but different regions may have different turning points, different time spans for realizing the turning point of EKC, and different slopes for the rising declining pattern. Four points are identified from this examination of the EKC for Beijing: First, this analysis suggests that it is not appropriate to generalize the emergence of EKC for all environmental indicators. Among the 12 main environmental indicators of Beijing, only two do not have enough explanatory meaning for the EKC. On the whole, the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation in Beijing has an obvious EKC character. Second, the efficient environmental policy and the huge environmental investment of the Beijing municipal and central governments have made its turning point of the EKC arrive early. Third, the EKC should not be widely assumed and it is necessary to refer to various and more flexible explanations. In other words, economic factors may be important, but social and natural factors should also be taken into account, such as environmental policy, environmental awareness of residents and the spread of environmental technology. Finally, the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation theoretically takes on an inverted U, but different regions may have different turning points, different time spans of reaching the EKC turning point, and different slopes of rising declining pattern.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目 (79970 0 6 1)
【CateGory Index】: X196
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